A Study of the Effect of Monetary Policy and International Reserves on Zambia's Economic Growth

R Mukelabai, L Haabazoka - International …, 2024 - ijemr.vandanapublications.com
R Mukelabai, L Haabazoka
International Journal of Engineering and Management …, 2024ijemr.vandanapublications.com
The objective of this study was to determine the effect of monetary policy and international
reserves on economic growth in Zambia using annual time series data from 1980-2022. A
number of studies have been carried in Zambia on the effect of monetary policy on Zambia's
economic growth. Therefore, the study sought to determine the effect of monetary policy and
international reserves in Zambia. The variables included in the study were GDP growth
(GDPTH) as the dependent variable and International reserves (FXR), exchange rate (EXR) …
Abstract
The objective of this study was to determine the effect of monetary policy and international reserves on economic growth in Zambia using annual time series data from 1980-2022. A number of studies have been carried in Zambia on the effect of monetary policy on Zambia’s economic growth. Therefore, the study sought to determine the effect of monetary policy and international reserves in Zambia. The variables included in the study were GDP growth (GDPTH) as the dependent variable and International reserves (FXR), exchange rate (EXR), interest rate (IR) and inflation (INF) as independent variables. Data on these variables was obtained from World Bank. The study employed a research design by using the method of ARDL analysis, the data was entered in the software package stata which was used to perform the ARDL model to estimate the long and short run relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables. The ARDL bound test was used to analysis cointegration and long run relationship and the ECM was used for analyzing short run relationship. The results showed that cointegration was there and there was a long-run relationship, all the variables were discovered to have a statistically significant in the long-run. Exchange rate and inflation have a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Zambia in the long-run while exchange rate is insignificant in the short-run. Interest rate and international reserves have a statistically significate positive impact on economic growth in Zambia while interest rate is insignificant after in second lag in the short run. Diagnostic test for serial correlation (Breush-Godfrey serial correlation LM test), normality (Jarque-Bera), heteroscedasticity (Breush-Pagan-Godfrey test) and stability (CUSUM-of-square test) were conducted to evaluate the estimated model. The study found that the estimated ARDL model could provide information on the behaviour monetary policy and international reserves’ impact on Zambia’s economic growth. The study recommended diversification of international reserves, exchange rate management, interest rate policies and inflation targeting.
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