An Integrated CVR/CVI–TOPSIS Framework for Selecting International EPC Markets: Evidence from Iran
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17529330Keywords:
International Market Selection, Engineering Service Exports, Content Validity (CVR/CVI), Fuzzy-TOPSIS, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Sanctioned EconomiesAbstract
This study proposes a novel integrated framework to enhance the reliability of international market selection (IMS) for engineering service exports under uncertainty and economic sanctions. A systematic literature review and expert consultations identified thirteen criteria across political-diplomatic, market prerequisite, and macroeconomic dimensions. The content validity of these criteria was tested using the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Content Validity Index (CVI). The validated criteria were weighted by an expert panel and incorporated into a fuzzy-TOPSIS algorithm. A decision matrix of 48 candidate countries was analyzed, identifying Armenia, Russia, and Qatar as the most attractive markets. The analysis underscores that diplomatic and banking relations outweighed traditional economic indicators in the sanctioned context. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the rankings. This study integrates CVR/CVI into the fuzzy-TOPSIS framework, addressing a key gap in the MCDM literature regarding criterion robustness. It also provides an early empirical application of IMS to engineering service exports, encompassing the entire EPC lifecycle within a sanctioned economy, offering a practical decision-support tool.
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