Impact of Greek Financial Crisis on the Value of Euro with the Other Major World Currencies

Abstract

During the Greek Financial Crisis period (December 2009), Greece, one of the members of the EUROZONE, faced an unprecedented financial crisis which triggered gradual erosion in the value of EURO with respect to major world currencies during this period. During May 2010, the European Union agreed for a bailout package for Greece which was intended to prevent a further decline in the value of Euro.
This study mainly focuses on the trend in the Exchange rate of Euro against the world’s major currencies during the period of Greek financial crisis and the predictability of Future spot exchange rates using the currency Futures rates. It has been noted that on an average the variation between Future spot rate and Currency futures rates has been highest in respect of INR/EURO and the lowest in respect of GBP/EURO. This indicates that the predictability of GBP/EURO futures rate as an indicator of future spot price has been the highest.
Further, it has been found that the depreciation in the EURO exchange rate during the Greek financial crisis has been the highest against INR and lowest against GBP. This has been further confirmed by the fact that the Regression Coefficient of GBP/EURO has been the lowest while that of INR/EURO has been the highest.